Iraq: Upcomming Elections and Possible Future Scenarios

نبذة عن كتاب Iraq: Upcomming Elections and Possible Future Scenarios

The current US policy in Iraq is facing serious complications – an assortment now widely shared by members of the policy community in Washington and within much of the Bush administration itself. The aim is to build a stable, moderate and democratic Iraq, even if doing so requires the almost indefinite deployment of significant members of the US military personnel. However, insurgency and instability are raging and continue to grow despite ongoing US and coalition counter-insurgency operations and substantial high-level US efforts to promote stability and political transition- which raises doubts about how Iraq will evolve politically after the planned January 30, 2005 national elections. At present, the US administration appears to be far from accomplishing its goals in Iraq, and an accessible “exit strategy” is still not apparent. It is hoped that the elections will produce factional reconciliation and representative government in Iraq, which could pave the way for stability. However, US officials and military leaders have attempted to play down expectations, saying that elections will not, in and of themselves, end the insurgency.
Beyond assessing the January 2005 elections, Iraq’s future can be evaluated by exploring alternative post-election scenarios and possibilities. Although the characteristics of countries and situations vary greatly, some analogies can be drawn between events and trends in Iraq and those experienced by other countries in the region. These “models” of Iraq’s political evolution are not intended to be exhaustive and Iraq’s political future might not approximate anything else seen in the region to date, however, they can be helpful in analyzing current trends in Iraq.